中国畜牧杂志

2020, v.56(01) 168-172

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非洲猪瘟疫情对我国生猪生产与市场的影响
Impact of African Swine Fever on Pig Production and Market

胡浩;戈阳;
HU Hao;GE Yang;College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University;

摘要(Abstract):

非洲猪瘟疫情对中国生猪产业可能产生巨大且长期的影响。一方面因为生猪饲养量大幅度减少,造成供给不足;另一方面,尽管猪肉消费在短期受到了一定程度的抑制,但由于消费偏好无法短期内改变,猪肉"刚需"仍然存在。预计2019年中国猪肉供需缺口将在1 000万t左右,全年猪价将呈现"先抑后扬"态势,生猪价格将可能在近两年内都处在较高水平。猪价上升可能通过产业链波及至食品全行业,导致物价水平整体上涨。建议加大生猪生产扶持力度,调动生猪养殖积极性;明确政府管理权责,确保猪肉稳定供应;遵从产消对接、区域互补原则,以农牧结合为前提,构建生猪生产消费均衡区域布局。
The African swine fever epidemic may have a huge and long-term impact on China's pig industry. On the one hand, it may be due to the dramatic reduction of pig feeding, resulting in insufficient supply. On the other hand, although pork consumption is restrained to some extent in the short term, pork "rigid demand" still exists because consumption preference cannot be changed in the short term. China's pork supply and demand gap is expected to be around 10 million tons in 2019, and the annual pork price will show a trend of first suppression and then rising. The price of live pigs may be at a higher level in the past two years. Meanwhile, the rise of pig prices may spread to the whole food industry through the industrial chain, leading to the rise of the overall price level. It is recommended to increase the support for pig production, mobilize the enthusiasm of pig breeding; clarify the government's management responsibility and ensure the stable supply of pork; production and elimination of docking, regional complementarity, and the integration of farming and animal husbandry, to build a balanced distribution of pig production and consumption.

关键词(KeyWords): 非洲猪瘟;生猪产业;猪肉市场;预判
African swine fever;Pig industry;Pork market;Prediction

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 2019年度国家社会科学基金重点项目(19AGL020)

作者(Authors): 胡浩;戈阳;
HU Hao;GE Yang;College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University;

DOI: 10.19556/j.0258-7033.20190713-01

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